As it was presumed, North Korea conducted a new nuclear test, its fifth one, at its famous site based at Punggye-ri on the 9th September. This test caused an earthquake of 5.3 magnitude, which is identical to January activity. Meanwhile in Pyongyang, it’s the national day, an important holiday in North Korea.
What is the impact of this nuclear test for North Korea ? I will try to provide some clues in order to obtain a better understanding of the whole framework.
At 12.00 pm, the DPRK Nuclear Weapons Institite issued the following statement:
Scientists and technicians of the DPRK National Aerospace Development Administration succeeded in putting the newly developed earth observation satellite Kwangmyongsong-4 into its orbit according to the 2016 plan of the 5-year program for national aerospace development.
Carrier rocket Kwangmyongsong blasted off from the Sohae Space Center in Cholsan County, North Phyongan Province at 09:00 on February 7, Juche 105(2016). The satellite entered its preset orbit at 09:09:46, 9 minutes and 46 seconds after the lift-off.
The satellite is going round the polar orbit at 494.6 km perigee altitude and 500 km apogee altitude at the angle of inclination of 97.4 degrees. Its cycle is 94 minutes and 24 seconds.
Installed in Kwangmyongsong-4 are measuring apparatuses and telecommunications apparatuses needed for observing the earth.
The complete success made in the Kwangmyongsong-4 lift-off is the proud fruition of the great Workers’ Party of Korea’s policy on attaching importance to science and technology and an epochal event in developing the country’s science, technology, economy and defense capability by legitimately exercising the right to use space for independent and peaceful purposes.
The fascinating vapor of Juche satellite trailing in the clear and blue sky in spring of February on the threshold of the Day of the Shining Star, the greatest national holiday of Kim Il Sung’s Korea, is a gift of most intense loyalty presented by our space scientists and technicians to the great Comrade Kim Jong Un, our dignified party, state and people.
The National Aerospace Development Administration of the DPRK will in the future, too, launch more satellites of Juche into the space, true to the great Workers’ Party of Korea’s policy of attaching importance to science and technology.
Meanwhile two of key diplomats of North Korea are abroad: Choe Son-hui, the adopted daughter of Choe Yong-rim, is for the 41th time in China. Yun Tong-hyon is currently in Moscow discussing weapons issues.
New movement of sanctions against North Korea?
In spite of sanctions, North Korea wants to prove that it’s still well functioning. On a short-term it’s true, however on a long-term I doubt that North Korea will be able to keep the pace for example due to lack of oil (which is mainly imported from China). Any acceleration of the nuclear policy of North Korea will accelerate the deployment of the THAAD and may bring us closer to a nuclear catastrophe. Therefore i consider that China will join the UN Security Council in order to draw more sanctions against North Korea.
Dealing with the NK nuclear issue cannot be solved through diplomatic channels. Therefore new sanctions should be rigorously applied. For example sanction foreign entities which are cooperating with people/entities already sanctioned. Forbide activities which are bringing foreign currencies to the bad NK leadership, such as tourism. Thus, forbide tourism related to the bad leadership of North Korea (or forbide tourism to places praying Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un). Forbide the whole tourism will have a little impact on the whole NK population. NK entities (under the UNSCR 2270 resolution) based abroad must be also sanctioned (for example, by forbidding NK companies to employ North Koreans abroad – like in Poland and Russia). Forbide NK propaganda music (praying the Kim family) on youtube (or similar) may be also a path to follow.
Regarding the Japanese policy toward North Korea, i encourage the reader, to follow and comment my 12 recommendations on the Japanese policy toward North Korea.
Control the traffic accross the China-North Korea border by an UN soldiers or an international guard under the monitoring of Chinese authorities in order to prevail the export to NK of sanctioned goods. By participating to sanctions and assuming them, China will obtain its role of regional political power in North-East Asia. As of now, China is not rigorously behaving on sanctions from UN Security Council Resolution 2270.
What about the Stability of the regime?
This nuclear test is also a proof of the unstability of the regime, by applying the same nuclear policy since 40 years, North Korea and its partially evil leadership is getting more isolated. Some of NK leaders knows that this policy is only jeopardizing their country. Many NK politicians are fleeing their country, even those related to the NK leadership. The latest defection of Thae Yong-ho, a member of the inner circle of Kim Jong-un, shows that there is no future for the new leadership of NK and that they’re unsafe in Pyongyang. North Korea is not a regular state according to Western standards. It’s closer to the Soviet Union with its State in the State organization (aka as the Ministry of the Public Security – bowibu) and a powerful Organization and Leadership Department. This unstable leadership may lead to a nuclear catastrophe over the Korean Peninsula. We do not face also with a stable nuclear policy, as the DPRK conducted 37 missile tests during Kim Jong-un’s reign (6 years), which is more than twice with what Kim Jong-il did during more than 40 years (I consider that kim Jong-il rules over North Korea from 1974)